Todd Brommelkamp/1600 ESPN
Baseball is back.
Technically, it’s been back since the Padres and the Dodgers met twice last week in Korea. Leave it to Major League Baseball to holds its season-opening games halfway across the globe during the week the NCAA basketball tournament gets underway.
With the arrival of Opening Day, there’s no better time to go on record with season predictions than the present.
Here are teams I’m keeping an eye on in each division this season, along with my selections for postseason award winners in both the American and National leagues.
[Odds used in this piece come via Circa Sports.]
American League East
Toronto +375
The Blue Jays do not have the best odds to win the division. That honor belongs to the Yankees, followed closely by the Orioles.
So, why the love for a team that at least on paper looks marginally worse than it did a year ago?
The AL East is one of the toughest divisions in baseball, so I’m purely making this pick from a value standpoint. With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, the Jays have a pair of exciting young sluggers to pair with George Springer and newcomer Justin Turner offensively.
Right-hander Kevin Gausman enters the 2024 season as a Cy Young candidate, and former Cedar Rapids Kernels pitcher Jose Berrios had a nice bounce-back campaign a year ago.
Maybe the Jays fail to win the division, but they should be in the mix for a Wild Card at bare minimum and, with a few breaks, can compete all season long for a chance to claim the division.
American League Central
Kansas City +675
I can’t pass this one up and, if the Royals get out to a strong start, you may be kicking yourself for missing out on such a juicy number.
Would this be a good time to mention Kansas City only won 56 games last season?
The Twins should (and likely will) win the Central this year, but there’s no harm in going off the beaten path looking for a surprise team. In fact, when I spoke with former big leaguer Dan Gladden during the Twins’ Winter Caravan stop in Cedar Rapids in January, the Royals were the team he mentioned as being the most intriguing.
An April schedule featuring a pair of series with Baltimore and Toronto, as well as a three-game home stand with Houston, should be an early indicator of whether the Royals can surprise us all in 2024.
If you’re risk averse, bet the Twins here and move on. If you want to hunt a big pay day but don’t want to go all-in on a team that looked like it belonged in the Pacific Coast League much of last year, go with the Tigers (+340) or Guardians (+365).
Bobby Witt Jr. is a superstar (more on him later), and Cole Ragans gives the Royals a front-of-the-rotation ace. Maybe this is the year a little of that Patrick Mahomes-and-Travis Kelce magic makes its way across the parking lot from Arrowhead Stadium to the K.
I expect 1B Vinnie Pasquantino (aka Pasquatch) to have a nice bounce-back season.
American League West
Texas +235
I took them to win the World Series last year because I thought they offered the best value.
No one is sleeping on Bruce Bochy’s team in his second year at the helm.
I fully expect the Rangers to hold off the Astros and Mariners in a competitive division race, thanks in no small part to a powerful offense that will feature Rookie of the Year front-runner Wyatt Langford. Throw in Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia, Evan Carter and Josh Jung and the Rangers will be scoring some runs this summer.
Do they have the pitching? Not out of the gate they don’t. With Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom out early and Jordan Montgomery departing via free agency, the Rangers will need all those big bats to win some games early on.
Many projections have the Rangers as a .500 team, give or take a win or two. I’m counting on Bochy to once again get the most out of his team and for the Rangers to again make the postseason.
National League East
Atlanta -305
Yes, that is a minus sign and not a plus.
There’s absolutely no value here nor should there be. While there is no such thing as a sure thing, Atlanta’s offense and pitching is unrivaled in the East and the Braves should cruise to another division title in 2024.
With Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider, sweeping the MVP and Cy Young awards may not be out of the question in the ATL.
There’s a lot to like here and not much reason to go into this one further.
National League Central
Cubs +195
Homer pick? Perhaps.
Every team in the Central has at least one weakness.
The Cardinals addressed their biggest issue – the rotation – during the offseason. Cincinnati has injury concerns and some young players likely headed for regression. The Brewers traded away ace pitcher Corbin Burnes before spring training even got underway and will be without closer Devin Williams early.
Enter the Cubs, who quite didn’t have the offseason fans were hoping for but did bring back Cody Bellinger’s bat. The offseason acquisition that may have flown under the radar, however, was adding Michael Busch from the Dodgers. He should solve last year’s revolving door at first base.
Early returns on Japanese import Shota Imanaga appear promising, and Justin Steele pitched at a Cy Young level in 2023.
The bullpen is a work in progress, but close games will feel a tad more comfortable with Craig Counsell in charge. The former Brewers skipper had the best record in baseball in one-run games last ,and that’s a big reason why he’s now drawing a massive paycheck on the north side of Chicago.
National League West
Dodgers -490
You thought the Braves number was chalky?
We all know the Dodgers’ story. Adding Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto this offseason almost seems unfair.
They have pitching, they have hitting and, as my friend John Bohnenkamp likes to remind everyone, they have money.
It’s an embarrassment of riches in southern California, where Mookie Betts serving as the team’s starting shortstop only goes to underscore the fact it’s the Dodgers’ world and we’re just living in it.
Pennant Winners
AL: Orioles +555
NL: Braves +310
World Series Exacta
Braves beat Orioles +4000
Baltimore benefits from being a Wild Card team and picks up momentum as the postseason rolls along only to fall to the Braves in the Fall Classic.
Most Valuable Players
AL: Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) +1700
If the Royals are going to shock the baseball world this year, it makes sense to piggyback this pick with my Kansas City selection above. Witt is a game-changing talent who only lacks some defensive chops.
NL: Bryce Harper (PHI) +1200
Cy Young Winners
AL: Tarik Skubal (DET) +1000
NL: Logan Webb (SF) +1600
Webb’s had a poor spring. He wouldn’t be the first pitcher to look completely different once the regular season gets underway, and the signing of Blake Snell could bump him back a spot in the rotation, setting up a few more favorable matchups along the way.
Rookies of the Year
AL: Wyatt Langford (TEX) +275
NL: Victor Scott II (STL) N/A
Sportsbooks are sleeping on Scott II, who has never played above Double A. An injury to Dylan Carlson has opened the door for him to break camp as the Cardinals’ starting centerfielder and that may be all the opportunity he needs to force the front office’s hand. Speed and Gold Glove-caliber defense, what’s not to love here, especially if the modest power gains he showed last year continue to track in the right direction?
Chances are Scott II has a rough introduction to The Show, just as Jordan Walker did for the Redbirds last season. Walker — my pick to win the award in 2023 — was a 6-1 long shot to win ROY before struggling and being sent to the minors.
Todd Brommelkamp is the host of “The Todd Brommelkamp Show” and can be heard weekday mornings on 1600 ESPN from 6:30-9 a.m.
