Spencer Wagen / 1600 ESPN
If you were hopeful that the dawn of the 12-team playoff era in college football meant stability was finally here, after several tumultuous years in the sport and around college athletics in general, I’m sorry to say that won’t be the case. By all accounts, the playoff is set to expand again — and with expansion comes more angst, arguments and controversy. Who could have seen this coming? The answer: We all did, or at least we should have.
Yes, after this season, and with a new TV contract in hand, the playoff will be growing again. No, not by taking a somewhat-natural step to 14 teams, but by taking the leap to 16 starting in 2026. They grow up so fast, don’t they? Of course, when access to the CFP means more money and a chance to flex your proverbial muscle as a Power Four conference, then yeah, the growth process will be expedited, especially in this day and age of college sports.
When you dive deeper into the story, the College Football Playoff growing to 16 teams isn’t the real controversy — it’s how the field of 16 is built that’s causing the most angst among Power Four conference leaders as we start the month of June.
Recently, the Big Ten signaled their support for the so-called “4-4-2-2-1” format, which would give the Big Ten and the SEC each four automatic bids into the field, while the ACC and Big 12 would each get two. In this case, the Group of Six would get one automatic bid, and three at large spots would round out the field.
On the other side, the Big 12 and the ACC back what’s being called the “5+11” model, which gives each power conference and the top team from the Group of Six a single qualifying spot, with 11 at-large bids.
With those two plans in front of you, which proposal do you think has gained the most support within the last week? Surprisingly, it’s not the one that gives the two biggest conferences the most power. According to ESPN, the “5+11” model is “gaining traction” after the SEC concluded their spring meetings and has a very vocal backer in Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark. “It has always been our first choice,” Yormark said, referring to the 5+11 model. “It’s fair and it rewards on-field performance.” Multiple coaches from the Big 12 and the SEC have also backed the plan, with many of them citing the desire to earn a spot in the postseason as opposed to being handed one.
If two major conferences plus coaches in multiple leagues endorse this plan, that means it’s a sure bet it’ll be put in place, right? Not so fast, my friend. While the 5+11 model has its merits, this plan is still at odds with the “4+4+2+2+1” model the Big Ten is backing.
The SEC as a conference has not (as of this writing) endorsed either format, but I find it hard to believe that a conference that thinks so highly of itself and believes itself alone is the best conference in all of college sports is going to deny itself multiple automatic bids to the College Football Playoff. Granted, the SEC and Big Ten will likely make up a good number of the 11 at-large bids in the other format, but I don’t know why either conference would leave it up to chance and throw a life preserver to the rest of the sport.
Time will tell which format will win out. In my opinion, the 5+11 format seems to be the most fair and most merit-based, and is one I think most fans would like to see put in place. It’s been pretty surprising to see even the biggest supporters of the Big Ten and SEC come out against the model giving them multiple automatic berths to the playoff. Maybe this is a step toward unity in a time of so much division over the future of college sports.
There are a number of other issues that are tied to expansion of the playoff, like a possible increase in the number of conference games in the SEC and ACC, and a potential scheduling agreement between the SEC and Big Ten that can’t be decided until the playoff format for 2026 is determined. Here’s hoping the people in charge can choose the right format and then stick with it before the urge to change pops up again.
Spencer Wagen is the host of “Spencer on Sports,” weekdays from 4-6 p.m. on 1600 ESPN. You can follow him on X (formerly Twitter) @SWOnTheRadio.
