Todd Brommelkamp / 1600ESPN
As the late, great Yogi Berra once opined, “it’s déjà vu all over again.”
Stop me if you’ve heard (or read) this one before: The Iowa men’s basketball program has plateaued. At the helm is a man who has won more games than any other coach in their sport at the school. Fan support is eroding. The athletic director is facing a tough decision, one where none of the choices provide for a pleasant outcome.
You know this story because it’s happened with Iowa hoops before. It’s happening again.
There are many parallels between the end of Dr. Tom Davis’ tenure in Iowa City and the impending conclusion of the Fran McCaffery era. They are so obvious they’re hard to ignore at this point.
You can make the argument that then-Athletic Director Bob Bowlsby made the right call in 1998 by moving on from Davis. Recruiting had dropped off a bit, empty seats were appearing in Carver-Hawkeye and the program probably needed a breath of fresh air. Unfortunately for Bowlsby, the situation turned into a fiasco. A lame duck heading in to his final year under contract, Davis was still incredibly popular with many fans. I was in the student section at Carver-Hawkeye Arena when, as Bowlsby was shown on the video board during a late-season game against Northwestern that final season, a “Fire Bowlsby” chant broke out, complete with the requisite three hand claps.
The die had been cast. There was no turning back. Had Iowa limped to the finish line or made an early exit from the NCAA tournament, perhaps the decision is nothing more than a footnote in history. That’s not what happened. Davis rallied the troops and the Hawkeyes reached the Sweet 16. It wasn’t a good look as every national media story focused on the affable Davis as a reluctant dead man-walking, finding a sliver of joy in his scrappy roster pushing through to the tourney’s second weekend. Iowa ultimately lost to the eventual national champion UConn Huskies, Steve Alford was hired from Missouri State to take the program to the next level and more than 25 years later the Hawks still have yet to return to the Sweet 16.
Here we go again. Sort of.
Fran McCaffery is not in the last year of his contract. An extension signed in 2021 keeps him employed through the 2027-28 season. Bowlsby simply announced his intention not to renew Davis’ contract. Iowa’s current AD, Beth Goetz, would need to actually fire McCaffery or, at the very least, convince him to leave of his own volition. Either choice will cost the Hawkeyes money. Lots of money.
McCaffery has largely done what he was hired to do when he replaced the lackluster Todd Lickliter in March 2010. He’s won more than he’s lost. He got Iowa back to the NCAA tournament and has taken them back on a somewhat-regular basis, last year not withstanding. If the Hawks miss the cut this year, it will be the first time they have missed back-to-back NCAA tourney appearances since 2018.
Why are we having this discussion now?
Tuesday’s home loss to Minnesota sure looks like it’s a flash point. The Gophers were dead last in the Big Ten prior to their 72-67 win over the Hawkeyes. Minnesota was 1-9 in its previous 10 visits to Carver-Hawkeye Arena. It was, for all intents and purposes, a very bad loss and one that came on the heels of terrible performances at USC and UCLA last week.
Attendance for last night’s game was listed at 8,004. There were far more than 6,000 empty seats, though. This was a conference game, albeit one with a late start time and played during the week. Those are convenient excuses but the main reason for fans staying home was evident on the floor, the one area of the program McCaffery has complete and total control over.
“We’ll get better,” McCaffery said Tuesday, lamenting his team’s particularly poor shooting performance from beyond the arc.
Five years ago, fans would have taken McCaffery at his word. Now? I’m not so sure. Whatever goodwill McCaffery accumulated early in his tenure has eroded. A growing number of fans are no longer willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.
Enter Goetz, who must make an uncomfortable discussion sooner rather than later. Not about McCaffery but her department’s willingness to make a significant investment in men’s basketball. Judging by her comments to the Des Moines Register in a lengthy sit-down interview prior to the Music City Bowl, I’m not certain that’s a bridge she’s willing to cross.
“We’ve got to get better there. We’re not hiding from the fact that we haven’t been able to put as many people in the stands,” Goetz told the Register’s Chad Leistikow. “That’s on us and our staff to figure out what exactly that looks like. Certainly, winning is a part of that. And we know that.”
Goetz didn’t address McCaffery’s future in the interview, saying she preferred to handle business at the end of the season much like her predecessor, Gary Barta, often did.
“The goal every year is to get in the NCAA tournament and go from there,” Goetz said. “One of the things in my short time that I’ve enjoyed, Fran’s guys and his team get better.”
This team isn’t getting any better. In fact, it’s getting worse.
According to the Register, McCaffery would be owed north of $4 million if he and the school parted ways. That’s a lot of money at a school like Iowa, but not an otherworldly sum given the explosion in television dollars that arrive each year from the Big Ten’s lucrative media rights deals. Of course, you’d also have to pay a new coach a salary commensurate with the market. Currently, McCaffery is among the lowest-paid coaches in the league.
Is Iowa willing to step up its game and signal a renewed commitment to a program that has been put on the back burner for far too long. Former coach Steve Alford dismissively referred to Iowa as a “football school” and Kirk Ferentz’s program still very much keeps the lights on for the rest of the department. When Lickliter was hired in 2007, Iowa was one of just two schools in the Big Ten that didn’t have its own practice facility. Questioning Iowa’s commitment to making its men’s basketball program a winner isn’t a new phenomenon.
Sometime between now and the end of the season, Goetz needs to sit down with McCaffery, put her cards on the table and offer the 66-year-old coach an early retirement plan. Make it financially lucrative for McCaffery to consider walking away, assuring him he’ll be feted on the way out and recognized for the good he did in turning a dormant program around. He won’t get a statue, but there’s a spot waiting in the school’s hall of fame for him when he’s ready.
Maybe McCaffery can be convinced to step aside so he can relocate to Indianapolis, where he has one son coaching at Butler, one currently playing for the Bulldogs and another set to join the program next year.
Give him what Davis was denied, a (somewhat) graceful exit.
Or run it back next year with the situation only growing worse. More empty seats, even more apathy. Recruiting will suffer without a contract extension. No one wants to play for a guy as a freshman who likely won’t be there when they’re seniors. In the meantime, the super-sized Big Ten won’t be getting any easier. [Aside: McCaffery’s current recruiting game is actually quite strong, something that couldn’t necessarily be said when Davis was shown the door.]
It’s a basketball doom loop. What Goetz cannot afford to do is dwell on previous hires and how they did — or did not — work out.
Bowlsby hired Alford to take the Iowa men’s basketball program to a mythical next level. Barta hired McCaffery to get the program back to where Davis had it when Alford took over. Goetz’s first men’s basketball hire will be brought in to take the program to a mythical next level.
Time is a flat circle and the clock is ticking.
Todd Brommelkamp is the host of “The Todd Brommelkamp Show” and can be heard weekday mornings on 1600ESPN from 6:30 to 9 a.m.
