Spencer Wagen / 1600 ESPN
February is here, and while there’s still plenty of college basketball to be played, we know the season is starting to wind down. Those bracketology projections from folks like Joe Lunardi and Jerry Palm start to mean a little more as we look toward Selection Sunday and the start of the NCAA Tournament.
After basketball fans in Iowa saw five in-state teams make the big dances last season, men’s and women’s, are we on pace to match that this year? Unfortunately, the way things stand right now, we will fall just short, but the experts say Iowans could have as many as four teams to cheer for between the two tournaments.
Let’s take a look at who’s in and who’s out as we start the new month.
Men’s
ESPN’s bracket guru Joe Lunardi’s latest update has two Iowa teams making the field of 68 in his latest projection. Lunardi has Iowa State firmly in the field, although the Cyclones’ stock has fallen in the last week. Last week, T.J. Otzelberger’s team was a clear-cut No. 1 seed, but three losses in a row, including Monday night’s road loss at Kansas, have dropped ISU to a two-seed for now. Lunardi has the Cyclones taking on No. 15-seed Florida Gulf Coast (Remember ‘Dunk City’?) in an opening round game in Milwaukee.
Could the Cyclones return to the No. 1 line by Selection Sunday? Absolutely, but they need to start winning games again (to state the obvious), plus hope the red-hot SEC cools off a bit, as three of the four projected top-seeds come from that league, along with the powerhouse that is Duke.
The other Iowa team to make Joey Brackets’ field is the Drake Bulldogs, who continue to play solid basketball under new head coach Ben McCollum. Drake has taken sole possession of the lead in the Missouri Valley and is projected to earn the auto bid from the MVC into the NCAA Tournament. Drake won its ninth consecutive game Tuesday night, beating Murray State by 10 on the road. Don’t assume that Drake has a bid locked in, as we have seen the regular season champ get ousted during the annual “Arch Madness” tournament, leading to some possible chaos for bracket makers.
As for the Iowa Hawkeyes and UNI Panthers, their chances to dance rely on making a run over the final month of the season and winning their conference tournament title, easier said than done for both teams at this point.
Women’s
Much like his counterpart, ESPN’s women’s basketball bracketologist Charlie Creme has two Iowa teams making the field in his latest round of projections.
No question, Iowa did its tournament hopes a big favor last weekend in beating then fourth-ranked USC, but the Hawkeyes still aren’t out of the woods just yet, as Creme has the Hawks as one of the final teams getting a bye in the field. That’s certainly better than being projected as a “play-in” team, but it’s clear they still have work to do. Iowa needs to find a way to win one or both of its next two games against Minnesota or Nebraska, fellow teams on the “10-seed” line in ESPN’s bracket to really solidify itself as a tournament team. That, and avoiding a bad loss versus either Rutgers or Wisconsin at home and I think Iowa is as good as gold to return to the tournament.
Creme’s latest bracket also has Iowa State in the field, but Bill Fennelly’s bunch is just barely holding on to a spot according to the projection. ESPN lists the Cyclones as one of the last four teams in the field, meaning they would have to play an opening round game for a chance to get into the actual field. Iowa State certainly has had its chances to build a strong resume, but they haven’t been able to cash in on any of their opportunities against the best competition they’ve played. Unfortunately for Cyclone fans, they have only one or two chances left to put a meaningful win on the ledger ahead of the tournament.
As for the rest, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Drake make a push for the NCAA women’s tournament. The Bulldogs have a really talented team but have fallen a little bit behind the pace in a strong Missouri Valley Conference as February starts. Both the Bulldogs and Northern Iowa would need to win the MVC women’s tournament to earn a spot in the NCAAs.
The NCAA Tournament is over a month away, but it looks like basketball fans in Iowa will have plenty of things to cheer for once the big dance starts up.
Spencer Wagen is the host of “Spencer on Sports,” weekdays from 4-6 p.m. on 1600 ESPN. You can follow him on X (formerly Twitter) @SWOnTheRadio .
